Fearnleys Weekly Report - Week 31 2022

Fearnleys Weekly Report
Week 31 - August 07, 2022

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Tankers

Comments
VLCC

The VLCC market dropped a couple of points compared to last week and looks to be 'holding' now at WS 58 for MEG/China voyages. Profits are still decent for a scrubber fitted unit as bunker prices are steadily decreasing in owners favor and might be the reason for slight further drop going forward as owners might seek more profit taking. The position list looks well balanced for the time being, as we move into the final decade in August ex MEG there should be about 60 more cargoes left if to combine with past couple of months.

USG taken a slight dip as last done USG/Korea now at USD 7.2 mill, but with uncertainties on the positions on the Continent it will be interesting to see what next done is on a 'safe' vessel.



Suezmax

The Suezmaxes in the West remains rather active, after TD20 got a small correction last week. The V's taking out Suez-cargoes was bound to have that effect on the market, but even after this the market still remains in the WS 130's. USG and Brazil still busy as well which keeps the rates in the West at decent levels. In the East we don’t see much crude going long from MEG, but a busy fuel market and a steady amount of crude cargoes going to India keep rates at current levels. Going forward we expect rates to remain rather stable, with some downward pressure as we are going in to holiday season. Historically August tends to be a more quiet month, but so far we have not seen much change.



Aframax

Rates in the Nsea have climbed up this week as activity picked up and a couple of owners were fixed out of the area leaving less options to the charterers. Activity in the area is expected to remain healthy, however there might be some downward risk as Suezmaxes could possibly step in for cross NSea runs. Moving forward we expect rates to remain healthy and move even higher unless bigger sizes are there to cap them. After a few active weeks, we have seen a drop in freight levels in the Med/Blsea market this week. With lower activity, tonnage list is looking slightly healthier giving charterers bit more leverage. We might see this softening trend continue somewhat unless cargo activity picks up again. The area is still offering owners respectable returns though, with td19 route currently showing around USD 76,000 TCE.



Rates
Dirty (Spot WS 2021)
MEG/WEST (280 000) WS 34.0 -1.0
MEG/Japan (280 000) WS 58.0 -2.5
MEG/Singapore (280 000) WS 59.0 -2.5
WAF/FEAST (260 000) WS 60.0 -1.5
WAF/USAC (130 000) WS 130.0 -2.5
Sidi Kerir/W Med (135 000) WS 180.0 -10.0
N. Afr/Euromed (80 000) WS 260.0 -20.0
UK/Cont (80 000) WS 187.5 2.5
Caribs/USG (70 000) WS 240.0 20.0
1 Year T/C (USD/Day)
VLCC (Modern) $26000.0 $500
Suezmax (Modern) $25000.0 $2,500
Aframax (Modern) $30000.0 $6,500
VLCC
VLCCs fixed in all areas last week 53 -1
VLCCs available in MEG next 30 days 164 -4
1 Year T/C Crude

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Dry Bulk

Comments
Capesize

Cape rates are under pressure with disappointing demand from Brazil as well as Australia. The c5 route is presently in the mid USD 8s compared to well in the 10s one week ago. As for c3 out of Brazil, there has been concluded some fixtures at sub USD 24 level, being down from USD 28 level. There is consequently a buildup of early tonnage and lack of expectations for the very near future, but rather a belief we will have a positive correction into the autumn.



Panamax

Another softer week for the Panamax market as owners felt the recent pressure continue across all basins, some limited resistance in the north Atlantic but this was largely position led with fundamentals weaker overall. We start seeing slight increase of tonnage in North Atlantic but that has been balanced by fresh volume this week. The North and East coast South America, continue to provide much need TA cargo but fronthaul still limited. Period demand has been active and in line with FFA as we start moving towards Q4 with better expectation. Market is flat but need volume in order keeping current levels. Holidays in mid Europe and we don’t see a big market fluctuation because of this.

Some representative fixtures this week:

W-Jade (75,378 2014) Stade 2 August was said to have been secured on subjects but little else emerged.

Rumours first thing today of the Marilita (81,834 2019) retro sailing Haldia 26 July fixing for a trip via EC South America redelivery Far East at $22,000 Comerge.

ETG Aquarius (81,976 2022) Tianjin 29/31 July fixed for a trip via NoPac redelivery Singapore-Japan at $16,750 to Klaveness.

Climate Respect (86,461 2022) Yosu 30/31 July fixed for a trip via EC Australia redelivery Japan $24,000 with Daiichi.

Anglo Marimar (98,681 2011) (scrubber) Taichung 29-30 Jul tct via EC Aussie redel Spore-Jpn $17,000 cnr.

Mighty Star (81,635 2020) (scrubber) in DC Nagoya 9-10 Aug tct via NoPac (+options) redel Spore-Jpn $18,000 – Oldendorff.

Ekaterini (82,006 2018) Zhanjiang 4 Aug tct via EC Aussie redel Japan $18,000 – MOL.

Yangze 21 (82,122 2012) Matsuura 6/8 Aug tct via Australia redel Spore-Japan $17,250 cnr.



Supramax

Supramax and Ultramax markets had another dull week with very little changes from the last few weeks. All markets are under pressure and have a hard time to sustain “the last done” levels. USG and ECSA have too many prompt/spot open positions, and in addition we don't see any fresh orders. Transatlantic round voyages pay around mid USD 20,000 pd. We see slightly softening further down the road. Pacific market lost its confidence from last week and rates sliding down to sub USD 20,000 pd for Supra delivering Singapore with coal shipment to China.



Rates
Capesize (USD/Day, USD/Tonne)
TCE Cont/Far East (180 DWT) $34,063 -$6,062
Australia – China $7.9 -$1.9
Pacific RV $5,841 -$5,954
Panamax (USD/Day, USD/Tonne)
Transatlantic RV $19,020 -$558
TCE Cont/Far East $27,277 -$628
TCE Far East/Cont $12,185 -$408
TCE Far East RV $15,350 -$287
Supramax (USD/Day)
Atlantic RV $19,020 -$1,677
Pacific RV $17,071 -$2,508
TCE Cont/Far East $19,250 -$17
1 Year T/C (USD/Day)
Newcastlemax (208 000 dwt) $23,000 -$1,500
Capesize (180 000 dwt) $18,000 -$1,500
Kamsarmax (82 000 dwt) $20,000 $0
Panamax (75 000 dwt) $18,500 $0
Ultramax (64 000 dwt) $21,000 -$500
Supramax (58 000 dwt) $16,500 -$500
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) $1,560
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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Gas

Chartering

EAST
An active start to the week with a flurry of cargos both ex Middle Eastern ports and Australia has made sure to remove a lot of open vessels from the position list. Many of the now fixed cargos had the luxury of a variety of ships to pick and choose and so we have seen the Baltic dropping more than 5 dollars just between last Friday until this Wednesday. Actual availability of vessels with reliable itineraries on August dates in the East is decreasing and as competition between Owners on the remaining cargos diminishes, we expect market have been bottoming out for now in the high 50s. Focus is also soon expected to shift towards September where a lot of the potential available ships now is more likely to be looking towards the West which is gaining momentum and is already back being a premium market once again.

WEST
As we have entered the first week of August and more people are back from vacation, we have witnessed a higher pace of activity fixing wise than we have seen the last couple of weeks. The position list last week looked long in the front of August but have now been shrunken as traders ended up programming their relets. Currently there are only 6 ships left in August where half of them is in the 1H and one is prompt open. The last handful of deals have been done for end Aug laycans. Moving into September vessel availability looks tight as shipowners are sending their ships via Suez/Cape and freight is set to increase again this period after seeing the last deals done around the 90 dollar mark.



LPG Rates
Spot Market (USD/Month)
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $800,000 -$250,000
LGC (60 000 cbm) $850,000 -$100,000
MGC (38 000 cbm) $915,000 $0
HDY SR (20-22 000 cbm) $700,000 $0
HDY ETH (17-22 000 cbm) $820,000 $0
ETH (8-12 000 cbm) $500,000 $0
SR (6 500 cbm) $450,000 $0
COASTER Asia $270,000 $0
COASTER Europe $350,000 $0
LPG/FOB Prices - Propane (USD/Tonne)
FOB North Sea/ANSI $696 $0
Saudi Arabia/CP $725 $0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf) $604 $13
Sonatrach/Bethioua $700 $0
LPG/FOB Prices - Butane (USD/Tonne)
FOB North Sea/ANSI $657 $0
Saudi Arabia/CP $725 $0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf) $506 -$3
Sonatrach/Bethioua $650 $0

LNG Rates
Spot Market (USD/Day)
East of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $45,000 -$2,000
West of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $40,000 -$2,000
1 Year T/C 155-160 000 cbm $130,000 -$3,000


Newbuilding

Activity Levels
Tankers Slow Slow
Dry Bulkers Slow Slow
Others Moderate Moderate

Prices
VLCC $120.0 $0.0
Suezmax $81.0 $0.0
Aframax $63.5 $0.0
Product $43.0 $0.0
Newcastlemax $66.0 $0.0
Kamsarmax $37.5 $0.0
Ultramax $35.5 $0.0
LNGC (MEGI) (cbm) $228.0 $0.0


Sale & Purchase

Prices
Dry (5 yr)
Capesize $54.0 $0.0
Kamsarmax $38.0 $0.0
Ultramax $34.5 $0.0
Dry (10 yr)
Capesize $38.0 $0.0
Kamsarmax $29.0 $0.0
Ultramax $28.0 $0.0
Wet (5 yr)
VLCC $82.0 $0.0
Suezmax $56.0 $0.0
Aframax / LR2 $51.0 $0.0
MR $36.5 $0.0
Wet (10 yr)
VLCC $59.0 -$0.9
Suezmax $41.5 $0.0
Aframax / LR2 $38.5 $0.0
MR $27.0 $0.0


Market Brief

Exchange Rates
USD/JPY 118.50 2.53
USD/KRW 1235.50 7.25
USD/NOK 9.24 -0.01
EUR/USD 1.10 0.00

Interest Rates
LIBOR USD (6 months) 3.43% 0.11%
NIBOR NOK (6 months) 1.85% 0.00%

Commodity Prices
Brent Spot $95.00 -$2.00

Bunkers Prices
Singapore 380 CST $500.5 -$6.5
Singapore Gasoil $987.5 -$98.5
Rotterdam 380 CST $482.5 -$8.0
Rotterdam Gasoil $1,016.5 -$91.5

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All rates published in this report do not necessarily reflect actual transactions occurring in the market. Certain estimates may be based on prevailing market conditions. In some circumstances, rates for certain vessel types are based on theoretical assumptions of premium or discount for particular vessel versus other vessel types.


Disclaimer