Fearnleys Weekly Report - Week 19 2021

Fearnleys Weekly Report
Week 19 - May 16, 2021

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Tankers

Comments
VLCC

Not a week that will remain long in the memory, but rates are holding. This mainly due to owners refusing to contemplate numbers lower than last done, rather than any indication of a steady/healthy cargo flow. TCE’s in the region of 0 to 10k (depending on eco, scrubbers etc) there is little fat left over. Owners can choose to hold off, as was the case with a Brazil export cargo that got only 3-4 offers, but ws33.5 still achieved by charterers. Wafr/East remains ws35 and a ws37.5 up to the UKC reported, treading on the Suezmaxes toes (which are providing very little support). In the MEG, we nearing 90 fixtures for May, and we still yet to work much of the 3rd decade, so we could see a busier month than others, but at present, very little working on the surface. On the whole, more of the same expected in the short term.



Suezmax

The Suezmax market remains depressed with all load-zones under downward pressure. Volumes remain so pitifully low in the East that we saw a modern unit booked at 130kt x ws52 for a MAF/Bataan run. Had charterers stuck around and fished for a bit longer, it may even have been less. Td23 looks like the next route to lose a point or two and could touch ws15 S/S as the list of FOC ships at Galle is starting to pile up. The East list is so long and Wafr/East cargoes in such short supply, logic dictates that further falls could drag that run down to mid/high ws50's. In the West, a Libya/Ningbo cargo dragged rates to a new recent low of USD 2.25M which hopefully represent some sort of bottom. There is zero support from Aframax or VLCCs which paints a rather bleak picture for the ultra short term.



Aframax

The Nsea/Baltic Aframax rates improved slightly on the back of a heavier 3rd decade Urals loading schedule. The tonnage list is looking somewhat tighter and owners put up a bit more resistance right now. There is a firmer undertone in the market, and we expect rates to firm in the current fixing window.
In the Med/Bsea, a decent level of activity has done its part in taking out a fair number of prompt ships the last few days. Although rates have taken a slight dip since last week and the tonnage list remains healthy, we may see a slight firming of rates in the week to come if current activity levels are maintained.



Rates
Dirty (Spot WS 2021)
MEG/WEST (280 000) WS 18.75 -0.3
MEG/Japan (280 000) WS 32.5 -1.5
MEG/Singapore (280 000) WS 33.0 -1.0
WAF/FEAST (260 000) WS 34.5 -4.0
WAF/USAC (130 000) WS 52.5 0.0
Sidi Kerir/W Med (135 000) WS 55.0 -2.5
N. Afr/Euromed (80 000) WS 85.0 -2.5
UK/Cont (80 000) WS 95.0 7.5
Caribs/USG (70 000) WS 100.0 5.0
1 Year T/C (USD/Day)
VLCC (Modern) $30000.0 $0
Suezmax (Modern) $16500.0 $500
Aframax (Modern) $16000.0 $0
VLCC
VLCCs fixed in all areas last week 48 7
VLCCs available in MEG next 30 days 155 -13
1 Year T/C Crude

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Dry Bulk

Comments
Capesize

Over the last week the market been extremely volatile with big movements. On the whole we see a change in sentiment from the super positive to a (maybe) expected correction and breather for the miners and charters. The West Australia route to China with iron ore is down 9% w-o-w and the basket of all routes now being marked at USD 39,055, down almost 6,000 from last report and seemingly will erode further.



Panamax

The positive sentiment from last week continued into this week, also supported by FFA values. Fixtures has been concluded at more than last done in both hemispheres. The South Atlantic is holding up and mid-week the P1A is valued around USD 25k. In the North Atlantic we feel the sentiment is a bit toppish with a longer tonnage list compared to last week. For the Pacific rounds, ships are being fixed in the 30k region.



Supramax

More fresh orders from South America. Supra from ECSA to Continent was covered at USD 30,000. Trips from Continent to USG were done around USD 18-19,000. Ultramax from West Africa being closed at USD 30,000 to Far East. Most gains coming from Pacific basin. Trips via Indo to SE Asia been fixed at low USD 30,000 and similar trip with redelivery China at USD 37,500. Ships from MEG to China collected high USD 20,000 for the business. Still firm numbers on period front. Supramax for 6/8 MOS being concluded at USD 25,000, whereas one-year deals still discussed around USD 17,000.



Rates
Capesize (USD/Day, USD/Tonne)
TCE Cont/Far East (180 DWT) $55,800 -$6,950
Australia – China $12.2 -$2.8
Pacific RV $35,825 -$11,596
Panamax (USD/Day, USD/Tonne)
Transatlantic RV $23,650 $11,075
TCE Cont/Far East $37,441 $11,459
TCE Far East/Cont $15,475 $4,173
TCE Far East RV $29,567 $10,805
Supramax (USD/Day)
Atlantic RV $18,315 $166
Pacific RV $28,071 $850
TCE Cont/Far East $28,646 -$711
1 Year T/C (USD/Day)
Newcastlemax (208 000 dwt) $32,500 -$3,200
Capesize (180 000 dwt) $28,000 -$2,800
Kamsarmax (82 000 dwt) $23,000 $1,000
Panamax (75 000 dwt) $21,000 $1,000
Ultramax (64 000 dwt) $19,500 -$250
Supramax (58 000 dwt) $16,750 $250
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) $2,939
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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Gas

Chartering

EAST
Fixing out of Middle Eastern ports saw a spike in freight over the past week as vessel availability has been scarce in the first days of June. Eastern premium is consequently now in the high single digits. Some vessels are now also looking set to run late for their laycans which could further tighten the early parts of June. Looking a bit further into the month we see a handful of potential relets and together with the usual owners positions the direction will be decided by actual volumes for the month as a whole.

WEST
The market has moved on, very much in the direction as reported last week. It’s a bit of an odd one, as the arb does not support the current spot freight at all, which under “normal” circumstances would dictate cargo cancellations and drops in freight levels. But not this time around. We have only seen a handful of cancellations so far, and although we might see a few more, there are also an increasing number of cargoes coming out from the East Coast. This, in combination with dry-docking and other fundamental inefficiencies, have actually pushed freight up. We cannot say the market is active, and it’s only the ones having to lift that is actually fixing, others seem pretty happy sitting on the fence so far. Freight rates for the transpacific route currently trades in the very high 30s per day, a clear discount to the East still, which as of yesterday where traded in the mid/high 40’s per day.



LPG Rates
Spot Market (USD/Month)
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,300,000 $200,000
LGC (60 000 cbm) $850,000 $0
MGC (38 000 cbm) $800,000 $0
HDY SR (20-22 000 cbm) $650,000 $0
HDY ETH (17-22 000 cbm) $750,000 $0
ETH (8-12 000 cbm) $465,000 $0
SR (6 500 cbm) $400,000 $0
COASTER Asia $265,000 $0
COASTER Europe $250,000 $0
LPG/FOB Prices - Propane (USD/Tonne)
FOB North Sea/ANSI $464 $0
Saudi Arabia/CP $495 $0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf) $420 -$7
Sonatrach/Bethioua $465 $0
LPG/FOB Prices - Butane (USD/Tonne)
FOB North Sea/ANSI $442 $0
Saudi Arabia/CP $475 $0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf) $381 -$3
Sonatrach/Bethioua $460 $0

LNG Rates
Spot Market (USD/Day)
East of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $72,000 $0
West of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $77,000 $0
1 Year T/C 155-160 000 cbm $77,000 $2,000


Newbuilding

Activity Levels
Tankers Increasing Increasing
Dry Bulkers Increasing Increasing
Others Increasing Increasing

Prices
VLCC $95.0 $2.0
Suezmax $64.0 $2.0
Aframax $53.0 $1.5
Product $37.0 $0.5
Newcastlemax $57.0 $2.0
Kamsarmax $30.5 $1.0
Ultramax $28.0 $1.0
LNGC (MEGI) (cbm) $191.0 $0.0


Sale & Purchase

Prices
Dry (5 yr)
Capesize $42.0 $0.0
Kamsarmax $28.0 $0.0
Ultramax $23.0 $0.0
Dry (10 yr)
Capesize $29.0 $0.0
Kamsarmax $21.0 $0.0
Ultramax $18.0 $0.0
Wet (5 yr)
VLCC $66.5 $0.0
Suezmax $47.0 $0.0
Aframax / LR2 $40.0 $0.0
MR $28.0 $0.0
Wet (10 yr)
VLCC $47.0 $0.0
Suezmax $32.0 $0.0
Aframax / LR2 $24.0 $0.0
MR $18.0 $0.0


Market Brief

Exchange Rates
USD/JPY 109.44 0.87
USD/KRW 1128.65 7.30
USD/NOK 8.24 0.01
EUR/USD 1.21 0.00

Interest Rates
LIBOR USD (6 months) 0.19% 0.00%
NIBOR NOK (6 months) 0.40% 0.00%

Commodity Prices
Brent Spot $68.00 -$1.50

Bunkers Prices
Singapore 380 CST $386.0 -$7.0
Singapore Gasoil $558.0 $1.5
Rotterdam 380 CST $381.5 -$8.5
Rotterdam Gasoil $551.0 -$2.0

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All rates published in this report do not necessarily reflect actual transactions occurring in the market. Certain estimates may be based on prevailing market conditions. In some circumstances, rates for certain vessel types are based on theoretical assumptions of premium or discount for particular vessel versus other vessel types.


Disclaimer