Fearnleys Weekly Report

Fearnleys
Weekly Report

Week 19 - May 16, 2021





01

Tankers


VLCC

Not a week that will remain long in the memory, but rates are holding. This mainly due to owners refusing to contemplate numbers lower than last done, rather than any indication of a steady/healthy cargo flow. TCE’s in the region of 0 to 10k (depending on eco, scrubbers etc) there is little fat left over. Owners can choose to hold off, as was the case with a Brazil export cargo that got only 3-4 offers, but ws33.5 still achieved by charterers. Wafr/East remains ws35 and a ws37.5 up to the UKC reported, treading on the Suezmaxes toes (which are providing very little support). In the MEG, we nearing 90 fixtures for May, and we still yet to work much of the 3rd decade, so we could see a busier month than others, but at present, very little working on the surface. On the whole, more of the same expected in the short term.


Suezmax

The Suezmax market remains depressed with all load-zones under downward pressure. Volumes remain so pitifully low in the East that we saw a modern unit booked at 130kt x ws52 for a MAF/Bataan run. Had charterers stuck around and fished for a bit longer, it may even have been less. Td23 looks like the next route to lose a point or two and could touch ws15 S/S as the list of FOC ships at Galle is starting to pile up. The East list is so long and Wafr/East cargoes in such short supply, logic dictates that further falls could drag that run down to mid/high ws50's. In the West, a Libya/Ningbo cargo dragged rates to a new recent low of USD 2.25M which hopefully represent some sort of bottom. There is zero support from Aframax or VLCCs which paints a rather bleak picture for the ultra short term.


Aframax

The Nsea/Baltic Aframax rates improved slightly on the back of a heavier 3rd decade Urals loading schedule. The tonnage list is looking somewhat tighter and owners put up a bit more resistance right now. There is a firmer undertone in the market, and we expect rates to firm in the current fixing window.
In the Med/Bsea, a decent level of activity has done its part in taking out a fair number of prompt ships the last few days. Although rates have taken a slight dip since last week and the tonnage list remains healthy, we may see a slight firming of rates in the week to come if current activity levels are maintained.


Rates

Dirty

(Spot WS 2021, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

MEG/WEST

280'

18.8

-0.3

MEG/Japan

280'

32.5

-1.5

MEG/Singapore

280'

33.0

-1.0

WAF/FEAST

260'

34.5

-4.0

WAF/USAC

130'

52.5

0.0

Sidi Kerir/W Med

135'

55.0

-2.5

N. Arf/Euromed

80'

85.0

-2.5

UK/Cont

80'

95.0

7.5

Caribs/USG

70'

100.0

5.0


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLCC

Modern

$30,000

$0

Suezmax

Modern

$16,500

$500

Aframax

Modern

$16,000

$0


VLCCs


Click rate to view graph

Fixed in all areas last week

48

7

Available in MEG next 30 days

155

-13


1 Year T/C Crude

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02

Dry Bulk


Capesize

Over the last week the market been extremely volatile with big movements. On the whole we see a change in sentiment from the super positive to a (maybe) expected correction and breather for the miners and charters. The West Australia route to China with iron ore is down 9% w-o-w and the basket of all routes now being marked at USD 39,055, down almost 6,000 from last report and seemingly will erode further.


Panamax

The positive sentiment from last week continued into this week, also supported by FFA values. Fixtures has been concluded at more than last done in both hemispheres. The South Atlantic is holding up and mid-week the P1A is valued around USD 25k. In the North Atlantic we feel the sentiment is a bit toppish with a longer tonnage list compared to last week. For the Pacific rounds, ships are being fixed in the 30k region.


Supramax

More fresh orders from South America. Supra from ECSA to Continent was covered at USD 30,000. Trips from Continent to USG were done around USD 18-19,000. Ultramax from West Africa being closed at USD 30,000 to Far East. Most gains coming from Pacific basin. Trips via Indo to SE Asia been fixed at low USD 30,000 and similar trip with redelivery China at USD 37,500. Ships from MEG to China collected high USD 20,000 for the business. Still firm numbers on period front. Supramax for 6/8 MOS being concluded at USD 25,000, whereas one-year deals still discussed around USD 17,000.


Rates

Capesize

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

TCE Cont/Far East

180'

$55,800

-$2,061

Australia/China

$12.2

-$1.4

Pacific RV

$35,825

-$6,107


Panamax

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

Transatlantic RV

$23,650

$4,765

TCE Cont/Far East

$37,441

$4,582

TCE Far East/Cont

$15,475

$2,629

TCE Far East RV

$29,567

$3,618


Supramax

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

Atlantic RV

$18,315

$160

Pacific RV

$28,071

$1,085

TCE Cont/Far East

$28,646

-$890


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

Newcastlemax

208'

$32,500

-$3,200

Kamsarmax

82'

$23,000

$1,000

Ultramax

64'

$19,500

-$250

Capesize

180'

$28,000

-$2,800

Panamax

75'

$21,000

$1,000

Supramax

58'

$16,750

$250


Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

2939



1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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03

Gas


Chartering

EAST
Fixing out of Middle Eastern ports saw a spike in freight over the past week as vessel availability has been scarce in the first days of June. Eastern premium is consequently now in the high single digits. Some vessels are now also looking set to run late for their laycans which could further tighten the early parts of June. Looking a bit further into the month we see a handful of potential relets and together with the usual owners positions the direction will be decided by actual volumes for the month as a whole.

WEST
The market has moved on, very much in the direction as reported last week. It’s a bit of an odd one, as the arb does not support the current spot freight at all, which under “normal” circumstances would dictate cargo cancellations and drops in freight levels. But not this time around. We have only seen a handful of cancellations so far, and although we might see a few more, there are also an increasing number of cargoes coming out from the East Coast. This, in combination with dry-docking and other fundamental inefficiencies, have actually pushed freight up. We cannot say the market is active, and it’s only the ones having to lift that is actually fixing, others seem pretty happy sitting on the fence so far. Freight rates for the transpacific route currently trades in the very high 30s per day, a clear discount to the East still, which as of yesterday where traded in the mid/high 40’s per day.


LPG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Month, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLGC

84'

$1,300,000

$200,000

LGC

60'

$850,000

$0

MGC

38'

$800,000

$0

HDY SR

20-22'

$650,000

$0

HDY ETH

17-22'

$750,000

$0

ETH

8-12'

$465,000

$0

SR

6.5'

$400,000

$0

COASTER Asia

$265,000

$0

COASTER Europe

$250,000

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Propane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$464

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$495

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$420

-$7

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$465

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Butane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$442

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$475

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$381

-$3

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$460

$0


LNG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

East of Suez 155-165k CBM

$72,000

$0

West of Suez 155-165k CBM

$77,000

$0

1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE

$77,000

$2,000





04

Newbuilding


Activity Levels

Tankers

Increasing

Dry Bulkers

Increasing

Others

Increasing


Prices

(Million USD, Weekly Change)

VLCC

300'

$95

$2

Suezmax

150'

$64

$2

Aframax

110'

$53

$2

Product

50'

$37

$1

Newcastlemax

210'

$57

$2

Kamsarmax

82'

$31

$1

Ultramax

64'

$28

$1

LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)

170'

$191

$0





05

Sale & Purchase


Prices

Dry 5 yr old 10 yr old
Capesize $42.0 $29.0
Kamsarmax $28.0 $21.0
Ultramax $23.0 $18.0
Wet 5 yr old 10 yr old
VLCC $66.5 $47.0
Suezmax $47.0 $32.0
Aframax/LR2 $40.0 $24.0




06

Market Brief


Exchange Rates

(Daily Change)

USD/JPY

109.44

0.87

USD/NOK

8.24

0.01

USD/KRW

1128.65

7.30

EUR/USD

1.21

0.00


Interest Rates

(Daily Change)

LIBOR USD (6 month)

0.19%

0.00%

NIBOR NOK (6 month)

0.40%

0.00%


Commodity Prices

(Daily Change)

Brent Spot

$68.00

-$1.50


Bunker Prices

(Daily Change)

Singapore

380 CST

$386

-$7

MGO

$558

$2

Spread MGO/380 CST

$172

$9


Rotterdam

380 CST

$382

-$9

MGO

$551

-$2

Spread MGO/380 CST

$170

$7


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