Fearnleys Weekly Report

Fearnleys
Weekly Report

Week 31 - August 07, 2022





01

Tankers


VLCC

The VLCC market dropped a couple of points compared to last week and looks to be 'holding' now at WS 58 for MEG/China voyages. Profits are still decent for a scrubber fitted unit as bunker prices are steadily decreasing in owners favor and might be the reason for slight further drop going forward as owners might seek more profit taking. The position list looks well balanced for the time being, as we move into the final decade in August ex MEG there should be about 60 more cargoes left if to combine with past couple of months.

USG taken a slight dip as last done USG/Korea now at USD 7.2 mill, but with uncertainties on the positions on the Continent it will be interesting to see what next done is on a 'safe' vessel.


Suezmax

The Suezmaxes in the West remains rather active, after TD20 got a small correction last week. The V's taking out Suez-cargoes was bound to have that effect on the market, but even after this the market still remains in the WS 130's. USG and Brazil still busy as well which keeps the rates in the West at decent levels. In the East we don’t see much crude going long from MEG, but a busy fuel market and a steady amount of crude cargoes going to India keep rates at current levels. Going forward we expect rates to remain rather stable, with some downward pressure as we are going in to holiday season. Historically August tends to be a more quiet month, but so far we have not seen much change.


Aframax

Rates in the Nsea have climbed up this week as activity picked up and a couple of owners were fixed out of the area leaving less options to the charterers. Activity in the area is expected to remain healthy, however there might be some downward risk as Suezmaxes could possibly step in for cross NSea runs. Moving forward we expect rates to remain healthy and move even higher unless bigger sizes are there to cap them. After a few active weeks, we have seen a drop in freight levels in the Med/Blsea market this week. With lower activity, tonnage list is looking slightly healthier giving charterers bit more leverage. We might see this softening trend continue somewhat unless cargo activity picks up again. The area is still offering owners respectable returns though, with td19 route currently showing around USD 76,000 TCE.


Rates

Dirty

(Spot WS 2021, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

MEG/WEST

280'

34.0

-1.0

MEG/Japan

280'

58.0

-2.5

MEG/Singapore

280'

59.0

-2.5

WAF/FEAST

260'

60.0

-1.5

WAF/USAC

130'

130.0

-2.5

Sidi Kerir/W Med

135'

180.0

-10.0

N. Arf/Euromed

80'

260.0

-20.0

UK/Cont

80'

187.5

2.5

Caribs/USG

70'

240.0

20.0


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLCC

Modern

$26,000

$500

Suezmax

Modern

$25,000

$2,500

Aframax

Modern

$30,000

$6,500


VLCCs


Click rate to view graph

Fixed in all areas last week

53

-1

Available in MEG next 30 days

164

-4


1 Year T/C Crude

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02

Dry Bulk


Capesize

Cape rates are under pressure with disappointing demand from Brazil as well as Australia. The c5 route is presently in the mid USD 8s compared to well in the 10s one week ago. As for c3 out of Brazil, there has been concluded some fixtures at sub USD 24 level, being down from USD 28 level. There is consequently a buildup of early tonnage and lack of expectations for the very near future, but rather a belief we will have a positive correction into the autumn.


Panamax

Another softer week for the Panamax market as owners felt the recent pressure continue across all basins, some limited resistance in the north Atlantic but this was largely position led with fundamentals weaker overall. We start seeing slight increase of tonnage in North Atlantic but that has been balanced by fresh volume this week. The North and East coast South America, continue to provide much need TA cargo but fronthaul still limited. Period demand has been active and in line with FFA as we start moving towards Q4 with better expectation. Market is flat but need volume in order keeping current levels. Holidays in mid Europe and we don’t see a big market fluctuation because of this.

Some representative fixtures this week:

W-Jade (75,378 2014) Stade 2 August was said to have been secured on subjects but little else emerged.

Rumours first thing today of the Marilita (81,834 2019) retro sailing Haldia 26 July fixing for a trip via EC South America redelivery Far East at $22,000 Comerge.

ETG Aquarius (81,976 2022) Tianjin 29/31 July fixed for a trip via NoPac redelivery Singapore-Japan at $16,750 to Klaveness.

Climate Respect (86,461 2022) Yosu 30/31 July fixed for a trip via EC Australia redelivery Japan $24,000 with Daiichi.

Anglo Marimar (98,681 2011) (scrubber) Taichung 29-30 Jul tct via EC Aussie redel Spore-Jpn $17,000 cnr.

Mighty Star (81,635 2020) (scrubber) in DC Nagoya 9-10 Aug tct via NoPac (+options) redel Spore-Jpn $18,000 – Oldendorff.

Ekaterini (82,006 2018) Zhanjiang 4 Aug tct via EC Aussie redel Japan $18,000 – MOL.

Yangze 21 (82,122 2012) Matsuura 6/8 Aug tct via Australia redel Spore-Japan $17,250 cnr.


Supramax

Supramax and Ultramax markets had another dull week with very little changes from the last few weeks. All markets are under pressure and have a hard time to sustain “the last done” levels. USG and ECSA have too many prompt/spot open positions, and in addition we don't see any fresh orders. Transatlantic round voyages pay around mid USD 20,000 pd. We see slightly softening further down the road. Pacific market lost its confidence from last week and rates sliding down to sub USD 20,000 pd for Supra delivering Singapore with coal shipment to China.


Rates

Capesize

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

TCE Cont/Far East

180'

$34,063

-$1,218

Australia/China

$7.9

$0.1

Pacific RV

$5,841

$468


Panamax

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

Transatlantic RV

$19,020

-$90

TCE Cont/Far East

$27,277

-$73

TCE Far East/Cont

$12,185

-$200

TCE Far East RV

$15,350

-$90


Supramax

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

Atlantic RV

$19,020

-$2,052

Pacific RV

$17,071

-$2,786

TCE Cont/Far East

$19,250

-$33


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

Newcastlemax

208'

$23,000

-$1,500

Kamsarmax

82'

$20,000

$0

Ultramax

64'

$21,000

-$500

Capesize

180'

$18,000

-$1,500

Panamax

75'

$18,500

$0

Supramax

58'

$16,500

-$500


Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

1560



1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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03

Gas


Chartering

EAST
An active start to the week with a flurry of cargos both ex Middle Eastern ports and Australia has made sure to remove a lot of open vessels from the position list. Many of the now fixed cargos had the luxury of a variety of ships to pick and choose and so we have seen the Baltic dropping more than 5 dollars just between last Friday until this Wednesday. Actual availability of vessels with reliable itineraries on August dates in the East is decreasing and as competition between Owners on the remaining cargos diminishes, we expect market have been bottoming out for now in the high 50s. Focus is also soon expected to shift towards September where a lot of the potential available ships now is more likely to be looking towards the West which is gaining momentum and is already back being a premium market once again.

WEST
As we have entered the first week of August and more people are back from vacation, we have witnessed a higher pace of activity fixing wise than we have seen the last couple of weeks. The position list last week looked long in the front of August but have now been shrunken as traders ended up programming their relets. Currently there are only 6 ships left in August where half of them is in the 1H and one is prompt open. The last handful of deals have been done for end Aug laycans. Moving into September vessel availability looks tight as shipowners are sending their ships via Suez/Cape and freight is set to increase again this period after seeing the last deals done around the 90 dollar mark.


LPG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Month, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLGC

84'

$800,000

-$250,000

LGC

60'

$850,000

-$100,000

MGC

38'

$915,000

$0

HDY SR

20-22'

$700,000

$0

HDY ETH

17-22'

$820,000

$0

ETH

8-12'

$500,000

$0

SR

6.5'

$450,000

$0

COASTER Asia

$270,000

$0

COASTER Europe

$350,000

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Propane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$696

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$725

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$604

$13

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$700

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Butane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$657

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$725

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$506

-$3

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$650

$0


LNG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

East of Suez 155-165k CBM

$45,000

-$2,000

West of Suez 155-165k CBM

$40,000

-$2,000

1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE

$130,000

-$3,000





04

Newbuilding


Activity Levels

Tankers

Slow

Dry Bulkers

Slow

Others

Moderate


Prices

(Million USD, Weekly Change)

VLCC

300'

$120

$0

Suezmax

150'

$81

$0

Aframax

110'

$64

$0

Product

50'

$43

$0

Newcastlemax

210'

$66

$0

Kamsarmax

82'

$38

$0

Ultramax

64'

$36

$0

LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)

170'

$228

$0





05

Sale & Purchase


Prices

Dry 5 yr old 10 yr old
Capesize $54.0 $38.0
Kamsarmax $38.0 $29.0
Ultramax $34.5 $28.0
Wet 5 yr old 10 yr old
VLCC $82.0 $59.0
Suezmax $56.0 $41.5
Aframax/LR2 $51.0 $38.5




06

Market Brief


Exchange Rates

(Daily Change)

USD/JPY

133.01

2.53

USD/NOK

9.73

-0.01

USD/KRW

1298.50

7.25

EUR/USD

0.98

0.00


Interest Rates

(Daily Change)

LIBOR USD (6 month)

3.43%

0.11%

NIBOR NOK (6 month)

1.85%

0.00%


Commodity Prices

(Daily Change)

Brent Spot

$95.00

-$2.00


Bunker Prices

(Daily Change)

Singapore

380 CST

$501

-$7

MGO

$988

-$99

Spread MGO/380 CST

$487

-$92


Rotterdam

380 CST

$483

-$8

MGO

$1,017

-$92

Spread MGO/380 CST

$534

-$84


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