Fearnleys Weekly Report

Fearnleys
Weekly Report

Week 5 - February 02, 2023





01

Tankers


VLCC

A steady week with small movements up in the East and down in the West, so a bit of a dichotomy. MEG has the potential for improvement, more through resistance than enquiry, as rates for MEG/China inching up to the WS 50 level and as VLCCs stamp all over the Suezmax market. Some additional questions from the MEG at the time of writing, as charterers close out a subdued 10-20 window. Still, owners are realizing Eastern enquiry outweighing a quiet and gently softening Atlantic market (USG/China down to USD 7.2m), so we see some owners previously willing West having a change of heart.

Across all load areas this week, the usual pattern of ships on subs with a scarcity of details. Over 25 vessels fixed away and the market none the wiser. And there lies why any market swings will remain a point or so either side of last done.


Suezmax

East of Suez, VLCCs continue to gorge on Suezmax stems which caps upside for now. Fortunately for owners, there has been continual drip feed of fuel oil tender barrels that keep nipping away at the early side of the list, which should prevent a steep/deep rate-collapse. MEG/China trades WS 130's on modern whilst TD23 will trade WS 50’s. In the Atlantic, some signs of life in the US Gulf where Aframax's have woken from their Winter slumber which will add some support to Suezmax/TA runs which we freight WS 87.5-90's with little downside. Across the pond, TD20 trades WS 115 for now but with the fixing window soon moving on to early third decade, this might represent the top of the market with a softer outlook for the remainder of the week. TD6 trades WS 170's after a market cargo tested owners resolve (down 20pts).


Aframax

Despite a couple of vessels ballasting away from the area, NSea rates moved sideways last week as market activity wasn’t as strong as expected. Bad weather in the area caused delays which led to vessels being replaced, however rates were repeated even on these fixtures. Moving forward we expect market to remain balanced. In the Med/BSea market, rates took hit a last week as ballasters from surrounding markets added downward pressure. Activity was strong but not enough to absorb the long supply of vessels. Rates seem to have reached bottom right now and if activity continues being strong, we might see owners gaining momentum and pushing for more on the next fixing window.


Rates

Dirty

(Spot WS 2023, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

MEG/WEST

280'

35.0

0.0

MEG/Japan

280'

50.0

2.0

MEG/Singapore

280'

50.0

3.0

WAF/FEAST

260'

49.0

-2.0

WAF/USAC

130'

112.5

-10.0

Sidi Kerir/W Med

135'

130.0

-15.0

N. Arf/Euromed

80'

200.0

-40.0

UK/Cont

80'

165.0

2.5

Caribs/USG

70'

150.0

10.0


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLCC

Modern

$33,000

$500

Suezmax

Modern

$38,500

$0

Aframax

Modern

$40,500

-$1,000


VLCCs


Click rate to view graph

Fixed in all areas last week

58

0

Available in MEG next 30 days

147

12


1 Year T/C Crude

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02

Dry Bulk


Capesize

An uninspiring trend from previous week with average down approx 1k. The main routes are more or less unchanged; the c5 in the low 6s and the c3 slowly approaching mid 16s. In other words, it is the TC routes being corrected. Owners are letting their ships wait for better rates, in line with predictions that rates are expected to pick up soon.


Panamax

The Atlantic market was described as sideways at best with limited activity surfacing. Certainly, sentiment appeared weaker still, despite some talk of off market business being banded around, and rates softened again. Asia by contrast came into its own with several better deals reported ex NoPac and Australia, whilst further South ex Indonesia sources spoke of better demand today, but trading appeared cautious so far with a wide bid/offer spread appearing.


Supramax

The Supramax and Ultramax market has yet another week where rates are under pressure despite the Chinese coming back after NY celebrations. USG and ECSA lack cargo supply and tonnage building up due to the ballasters from other areas. TA on Supra fixing USD 8,000-9,000 pd and fronthaul at USD 13,000-15,000 pd. On the bright side, Pacific market slowly improving, and owners obtain better rates for Pacific RV and BH cargoes. Pacific RV at USD 9,000-10,000 pd and a backhaul to Atlantic getting close to USD 8,500 pd.


Rates

Capesize

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

TCE Cont/Far East

180'

$19,875

-$375

Australia/China

$6.3

-$0.0

Pacific RV

$2,450

$55


Panamax

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)


Click rate to view graph

Transatlantic RV

$7,240

-$365

TCE Cont/Far East

$17,700

-$323

TCE Far East/Cont

$4,280

$54

TCE Far East RV

$8,603

$315


Supramax

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

Atlantic RV

$7,693

-$631

Pacific RV

$6,700

$1,100

TCE Cont/Far East

$13,842

-$346


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

Newcastlemax

208'

$19,500

$0

Kamsarmax

82'

$16,500

$0

Ultramax

64'

$14,250

$1,000

Capesize

180'

$16,000

$0

Panamax

75'

$15,500

$0

Supramax

58'

$12,500

$1,000


Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

668



1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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03

Gas


Chartering

EAST
The East of Suez fixing activity has been fairly inactive so far this week despite a few players having tested freight levels on both end February and early March laycans ex MEG. Currently offers are hovering low/mid USD 90's whereas bids from would-be charterers for early March are touching the low USD 90's. An Indian PSU quoted a cargo for an end February laycan, which should see a decent amount of offers. As mentioned, focus is gradually shifting to March, and it seems February is more or less done once the Indian cargo is concluded. The QP acceptances for March are expected tonight or tomorrow, which could and should trigger some fixing activity. Freight rates should be stabilizing and finding its feet once activity resumes despite there being some gap between bids and offers at the moment. Early March availability ex MEG could end up looking rather tight, and it may happen fairly quickly as the owners or trader relets are also still left with the possibility to go West where one can secure healthy earnings on longer voyages.

WEST
March fixing remains lively in the West, albeit it has to slow down somewhat from last week’s flurry of fixtures because we are looking at laycans’ one and a half month or more, ahead. At the time of writing, we count 25 spot fixtures (nine during 1st/thirteen during 2nd and three during 3rd decade) out of the USG/USEC for March dates. There are currently 10-11 available VLGCs for March, however, it is likely that we will see a handful more vessels on the position list as some vessels scheduled for loading during February ex USG/USEC will be heading West to discharge. The latest Baltic print is now at parity for the East and West markets.


LPG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Month, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

VLGC

84'

$2,000,000

$400,000

LGC

60'

$1,500,000

$400,000

MGC

38'

$1,000,000

$0

HDY SR

20-22'

$800,000

$0

HDY ETH

17-22'

$875,000

$0

ETH

8-12'

$530,000

$0

SR

6.5'

$490,000

$0

COASTER Asia

$270,000

$0

COASTER Europe

$400,000

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Propane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$520

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$590

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$459

-$6

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$560

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Butane

(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$540

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$605

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$518

-$12

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$580

$0


LNG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Day, Weekly Change)


Click rate to view graph

East of Suez 155-165k CBM

$60,000

-$5,000

West of Suez 155-165k CBM

$52,500

-$2,500

1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE

$150,000

-$1,000





04

Newbuilding


Activity Levels

Tankers

Slow

Dry Bulkers

Slow

Others

Moderate


Prices

(Million USD, Weekly Change)

VLCC

300'

$121

$0

Suezmax

150'

$81

$0

Aframax

110'

$64

$0

Product

50'

$44

$0

Newcastlemax

210'

$66

$0

Kamsarmax

82'

$38

$0

Ultramax

64'

$36

$0

LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)

170'

$240

$0





05

Sale & Purchase


Prices

Dry 5 yr old 10 yr old
Capesize $44.0 $30.0
Kamsarmax $29.5 $23.0
Ultramax $29.0 $22.5
Wet 5 yr old 10 yr old
VLCC $93.0 $70.5
Suezmax $67.0 $52.0
Aframax/LR2 $60.0 $47.5




06

Market Brief


Exchange Rates

(Daily Change)

USD/JPY

129.19

2.53

USD/NOK

9.90

-0.01

USD/KRW

1234.00

7.25

EUR/USD

0.92

0.00


Interest Rates

(Daily Change)

LIBOR USD (6 month)

5.20%

0.06%

NIBOR NOK (6 month)

3.12%

0.00%


Commodity Prices

(Daily Change)

Brent Spot

$83.00

-$3.50


Bunker Prices

(Daily Change)

Singapore

380 CST

$413

-$21

MGO

$906

-$33

Spread MGO/380 CST

$493

-$12


Rotterdam

380 CST

$406

-$4

MGO

$897

-$45

Spread MGO/380 CST

$492

-$42


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