Fearnleys Weekly Report

Fearnleys
Weekly Report

Week 29 - July 15, 2020





01

Tankers


VLCC

This week kicked off with a handful of fresh inquiries, but it did little to alleviate the softer bias in this typically quieter period between monthly programs. A couple of MEG/east cargoes went on older units at W38, a reasonable 5-6 point discount from the modern class. The tonnage situation is still relatively balanced, with ongoing delays in China, and some optimism that the taps may be opened up a little more come August. On the flip side there is increased worry about demand due to the potential resurgence of Covid-19 cases, as has been evident in some US States. Thus, it remains to be seen if some of the high profile OPEC member's push to increase production will gather unanimous support. Activity has tailed off as the week progressed, with no help from the Atlantic, leaving the cargo board wanting at the time


Suezmax

The suezmax market in the west remains active, but with a lot of relets in fixing positions it is challenging for Owners to do much about the rates. Tonnage list is fairly balanced with limited overhang, and with a busy 1st decade we could see Owners trying to push for higher numbers. In the east we still see a large number of ships stuck with no berthing in northern China. Even with this many ships tied up, tonnage list is rather long, and in addition cargo activity has not been too good. Meg/east on modern tonnage is still below w50, and does not seem to move this week either. Only positive for Owners out east, is that we see quite a lot of ships ballasting towards West-Africa which could help remaining tonnage going into next week.


Aframax

NORTH

As expected we saw a small increase in rates for Aframaxes trading in the North Sea and Baltic this week. Going forward the list is looking tighter for North Sea cargoes loading in the 22-25 July window. We could see rates firming further depending on how many stems that will come to the market after oil companies have programmed their own tonnage. But there is a bit of optimism for the next week to come with North Sea being the main driver.

MED

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea rates jumped about 10 points last week moving into the high ws60’s. For the time being the market seems fairly balanced in terms of supply and demand and we expect the market to move sideways in the 25-31 July fixing window.


Rates

Dirty

(Spot WS)


Click rate to view graph

MEG/WEST

280'

25.0

0.0

MEG/Japan

280'

44.0

-6.0

MEG/Singapore

280'

45.0

-5.0

WAF/FEAST

260'

46.5

-1.0

WAF/USAC

130'

45.0

-2.5

Sidi Kerir/W Med

135'

47.5

0.0

N. Arf/Euromed

80'

67.5

12.5

UK/Cont

80'

77.5

7.5

Caribs/USG

70'

70.0

0.0


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

VLCC

Modern

$39,000

-$1,000

Suezmax

Modern

$24,500

$0

Aframax

Modern

$19,000

$0


VLCCs


Click rate to view graph

Fixed in all areas last week

37

-21

Available in MEG next 30 days

116

1


1 Year T/C Crude

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02

Dry Bulk


Capesize

Still drifting slowly south on a combination of corrective sentiment and partly slow fundamentals. Iron ore prices are at year-high and miners are selling at capacity, however spot volumes concluded from both Brazil and West Australia are dominated by only 2 major exporters. Coal trades again showing signs of life, but millions of tons still remain onboard capes waiting for upto 2 months to discharge at Chinese ports for a mix of political and commercial reasons. Average daily earnings down some 17 pct w-o-w to come in at a still healthy usd 24500, with interpacific rounds having taken the biggest hit from almost usd 28k down to usd 20k as confidence to ballast into the abyss has declined. Period interest remains considerable, but little or nothing concluded as paper-derived evaluations far from matching physical expectations.


Panamax

We have experienced a rally in rates over the last couple of weeks, but after holidays in Spore and a slow start to the week we now see a somewhat standoff between chrts and ows .
Mid week we see rates are holding up in both hemispheres with P1A hovering ard the 17-18k mark and P3 at ard 12k.
The tonnage list is still tight, especially in the North and 19k was achieved for a shorter Baltic round. The grain market is still absorbing tonnage and Fhauls are being fixed in region of 16k + 600k GBB for ECSA/Feast.


Supramax

Still firm in several areas and gains to the index in the beginning of the week. In the Atlantic, strong numbers seen from both Black Sea and Continent, where ultras are fetching close to mid 20’k and low 20’k respectively for fh. ECSA is paying mid/high USD 14000 + 470k gbb for to Feast and around USD 17000 for TA, while numbers from the USG are giving high teens for TA and low/mid 20’s to Feast. Further east, India/China is fixing around USD 12500, while Nopac and Aussie rounds are paying around USD 10000.


Rates

Capesize

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne)


Click rate to view graph

TCE Cont/Far East

180'

$44,375

-$4,300

Australia/China

$7.9

-$1.1

Pacific RV

$20,458

-$5,380


Panamax

(USD/Day, USD/Tonne)


Click rate to view graph

Transatlantic RV

$17,045

$335

TCE Cont/Far East

$25,209

$1,277

TCE Far East/Cont

$3,978

$204

TCE Far East RV

$12,015

$155


Supramax

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

Atlantic RV

$13,040

$1,437

Pacific RV

$8,364

$764

TCE Cont/Far East

$21,596

$2,239


1 Year T/C

(USD/Day)


Click rate to view graph

Newcastlemax

208'

$18,500

-$500

Kamsarmax

82'

$12,700

$200

Ultramax

64'

$11,000

$0

Capesize

180'

$15,500

-$500

Panamax

75'

$11,000

$500

Supramax

58'

$9,400

$150


Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

$1,696



1 Year T/C Dry Bulk

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03

Gas


Chartering

WEST
In the West this week, the market has continued to tighten as freight supply looks relatively short compared to the number of spot fixtures which are anticipated for the month. Players have been fixing for laycans towards the end of August and this also indicates a preference to secure freight now before it becomes more expensive. Given that the East has seen rates edge higher too, it is not immediately obvious how ships will position themselves moving forward, but it seems unlikely that the West will suddenly be flooded by ships. As such, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect rates to continue to strengthen at least for fixtures with August laycans

EAST
News of Adnoc cargo advancements coupled with vessels being delayed in India and others sailing West quickly led to a tight market in the front of August. Simultaneously, we are awaiting Saudi acceptances which are expected out from tomorrow, and there is talk of less cuts in next month’s production throughput. Altogether, this has created a bullish sentiment on freight East of Suez and hence climbing baltic benchmark.


LPG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Month)


Click rate to view graph

VLGC

84'

$700,000

$150,000

LGC

60'

$600,000

$50,000

MGC

38'

$600,000

$0

HDY SR

20-22'

$630,000

$0

HDY ETH

17-22'

$730,000

$0

ETH

8-12'

$390,000

$0

SR

6.5'

$300,000

$0

COASTER Asia

$250,000

$0

COASTER Europe

$140,000

-$20,000


LPG/FOB Prices - Propane

(USD/Tonne)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$252

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$360

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$252

-$3

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$260

$0


LPG/FOB Prices - Butane

(USD/Tonne)


Click rate to view graph

FOB North Sea/Ansi

$308

$0

Saudi Arabia/CP

$340

$0

MT Belvieu (US Gulf)

$198

-$2

Sonatrach/Bethioua

$340

$0


LNG Rates

Spot Market

(USD/Month)


Click rate to view graph

East of Suez 155-165k CBM

$32,000

$1,000

West of Suez 155-165k cbm

$35,000

$1,000

1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE

$44,000

$0





04

Newbuilding


Activity Levels

Tankers

Slow

Dry Bulkers

Slow

Others

Slow


Prices

(Million USD)

VLCC

300'

$89

$0

Suezmax

150'

$59

$0

Aframax

110'

$49

$0

Product

50'

$35

$0

Newcastlemax

210'

$49

$0

Kamsarmax

82'

$27

$0

Ultramax

64'

$25

$0

LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)

170'

$183

$0





05

Sale & Purchase


Prices

Dry 5 yr old 10 yr old
Capesize $36.0 $21.0
Kamsarmax $21.0 $14.5
Ultramax $20.0 $11.0
Wet 5 yr old 10 yr old
VLCC $72.0 $50.0
Suezmax $50.0 $35.0
Aframax/LR2 $40.0 $28.0




06

Market Brief


Exchange Rates

USD/JPY

107.26

-0.27

USD/NOK

9.40

0.00

USD/KRW

1205.50

9.95

EUR/USD

1.14

0.01


Interest Rates

LIBOR USD (6 month)

0.34%

-0.01%

NIBOR NOK (6 month)

0.45%

-0.01%


Commodity Prices

Brent Spot

$43.00

$0.50


Bunker Prices

Singapore

380 CST

$272

$7

MGO

$388

-$1

Spread MGO/380 CST

$117

-$8


Rotterdam

380 CST

$252

$2

MGO

$359

-$14

Spread MGO/380 CST

$107

-$16


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