A couple of quiet days and the tide can turn. However, owners can not be blamed for profit taking, when seeing TCE returns in the USD 80’s per day. Decreasing bunker costs coupled with a quiet cargo list, owners are checking out at numbers lower than last done (mid WS 90's MEG/East, sub USD 10m USG-China). October is looking a lighter month, perhaps unsurprising after a near record cargo count in September for overall VLCC fixings driven by the MEG and USG. However, recession fears in the West and inevitable decreases in US SPR releases, will mean less USG exports going forward. With the OPEC+ 'threatening' to cut production to support oil prices, we may be close to peak VLCC volumes for now. Also worth noting, hurricane Ian may shut in up to 2 mbpd in the Gulf of Mexico and causing delay potential.

The main support mechanism for the global Suezmax market right now is VLCC sentiment, and without this very tenuous link the pure fundamentals of this market, at least in the ultra-short term, are weaker. Let’s start off with the Black Sea which had a very industrious first decade but has now slowed to a whimper for the second, as a mixture of TC/OP listings have taken momentum away from that region. This has left us with a chunk of prompt vessels (or close to being prompt) in this region now missing the Black Sea/Med fixing window, who will now have to gamble on prompter Med cargoes popping out, or, as will most likely be the case, force the majority into entertaining West Africa at lower levels. The East is similarly fundamentally weak and in need of further enquiry to maintain present levels.

End of last week the Nsea Aframax market gained some momentum as charterers showed their cards and owners seized the opportunity to dig their heels in and ask for higher rates than last done. This week rates have continued to firm on the back of increased activity. Unless bigger sizes come into play, we expect rates to remain firm as the tonnage list is looking quite thin in the area for any cargoes loading up to 10th October. The Med market moved sideways last week as activity remained firm and some ships ballasted away from the area seeking business elsewhere. The position list looks tight in the front end, but with dates moving forward and some more ballasters ex East the current upside potential could be dampened a bit. However, if the activity continues, we expect the market to remain healthy.

Last week ended positive as all segments improved with all the west Australian miners being present, south Brazil pushing with Vale covering several liftings and spot tonnage in the north being covered. However, the positiveness disappeared this week as Pacific went from being very busy last week to very quiet this week. Hence, we see a 27% decline in time charter hire week on week for the west Australia to China round trip. Though Pacific has been disappointing so far this week, and general sentiment is weaker, the north Atlantic still holding and Vale still being fairly active thus we see the market holding.

Seemingly the Atlantic saw something of a revival this week with some decent levels of activity in the North. Primarily there remained some disparity between the grain and mineral trades with the former still paying a premium with improved levels concluded and sentiment turned a little on the back of some further better deals. The Asian market appeared under pressure from the get-go, with both the Indonesia and NoPac round trips losing further ground as supply/demand fundamentals played out.

General situation remains across the Supra desk that demand growth is 0% whereas fleet growth keeps ticking upwards. Discharge waiting times are also down on last year, causing further downward pressure on markets.

Tick downturn on the last weeks activity from the USG, where fhauls were discussed at around USD 23,000. Trip from Cont to USG being concluded about USD 18,000 on Supramax. Bhaul from CJK to Cont were done at USD 20,000. Nopac round on Ultramax being fixed around USD 19,500. Supra from Indonesia with coal run to India concluded around USD 21,750.

Tick more period activity but not at the improved levels though. Ultramax was covered for 3-4 mos at 20k with delivery Atlantic and redelivery ww, another Ultra open in Far East was fixed in the low USD 18,000 for one year.

EAST
After last week’s fixing frenzy and this week’s APPEC conference in Singapore, activity has comparably slowed down. We have seen about 20 spot fixtures concluded from the Middle East in October, but still expect to see a handful of remaining cargoes before focus shifts to November. Freight ideas remain firm with most owners’ ideas now in the USD 80s RT/C for next Eastern business.

WEST
After having seen a lot of fixing in the West the last 4-5 weeks, we are now witnessing a more quiet week. It looks like October-fixing is currently over as the last remaining ships this period have been programmed. Trader relets are currently dominating a very tight position list while the big shipowners seemingly are sold out until the middle of November.

We have seen a dozen November deals in the USG so far, with last done at USD 130 H/C and 70 H/F, and there is a lot more to be done going forward.